Wednesday, October 9, 2019


Probability
Oct 8 2019


An asteroid slipped by the planet,
passing between the moon and the earth
in a near-miss
the scientists scanning the skies
failed to notice.

As the dinosaurs, too
never knew.

And if not asteroids
then a supernova
to end it all.

We go about our business
walking purposefully, eyes front
while fate randomly falls
like drops of rain
pelting down.

So you can be touched by grace.

Or intersect, face-first
with foul stuff
hurtling earthward,
hair plastered, eye covered
with free-falling guano,
the stink of half-digested fish
stuck to you for days.

Contingency rules,
and coincidence is neither reward nor conspiracy
but what it is,
statistics.

Because shit happens,
and extra-terrestrial rocks
that have ricocheted around the galaxy
for billions of years
will one day land,
a city immolate
and the rest of us nod knowingly
as Sodom and Gomorrah
reap their just desserts.

Who, we are smugly assured, deserve their fate,
all sodomites and sinners
no different than the reptiles
who were cleansed as well.

Those terrible lizards
who are now reduced to birds,
their distant descendants
darkening our skies.

Like looking up
at that damned ring-billed gull,
circling overhead
with us in its sites.




Coincidence isn't given enough credit. Statistics are not intuitive. Rather, we are magical thinkers, pattern-seekers, and great rationalizers ...as well as moralizers. I think of the mountain climber who survived the avalanche and credits prayer. Trouble is, the ones who died are no longer here to tell us that they, too, prayed. Or the millionaire who attributes his success to hard work and creativity. Trouble is, we never interview the loser – because why would we? – who worked just as hard and was just as creative, but somehow failed.

Contingency, coincidence, and the random machinations of fate determine our lives as much as our own agency, virtue, or best intentions.

We want to ascribe meaning where there is none. We desperately seek to imagine a moral universe, when all there is is an arbitrary one.

When I heard about this potential killer asteroid and what we might have made of it, had it ever landed, I had these thoughts. And there will be an asteroid, eventually. But no one could survive, constantly looking up. We live our lives. We deny. We hope for the best. What else can one do?



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